The swing state vote based on rural unemployment numbers requires state-by-state analysis

The bundle of swing states -- Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida -- include quite a few rural voters. And if, as they tell us, the presidential election will be decided by those states, it might just be a matter of who has jobs there and who doesn't. But you have to look at each state, notes Bill Bishop at the Daily Yonder, because the picture is different every time you cross a state line. "You can see why Obama feels more confident in Iowa, which is doing relatively well. And the President is running behind in North Carolina, in part, no doubt, to the rotten unemployment figures in the state's rural and exurban counties," Bishop writes. "Southern Virginia is doing poorly — and we've seen a lot of attention there from both campaigns. Mitt Romney has been talking about coal and mining jobs, an appeal that must resonate in southern Ohio and southwestern Virginia. Romney has been making similar arguments in rural Colorado, which shows signs of a weak economy. Rural Florida is not doing particularly well, but we haven't seen a response aimed at these rural counties as of yet."

Rural unemployment drops, but number of jobs doesn't change

The unemployment rate in rural and exurban counties dropped slightly in August, the Daily Yonder reports. It fell to 7.99 percent in rural counties and 7.6 in exurban, which are counties within metropolitan areas, but with half the residents living in rural settings, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The rural rate in July was 8.4 percent, and 8 percent in exurban. Almost nine out of 10 rural counties reported lower unemployment rates this year. (Yonder map shows rural, exurban unemployment change from Aug. 2011 to Aug. 2012; Blue counties had a decrease, orange had an increase.)

"Just because unemployment rates are lower, however, doesn't mean that there's been a boom in rural employment," Yonder Co-Editor Bill Bishop reports. There are slightly fewer people employed in rural counties this August than last August. The number of jobs in rural counties has decreased by almost 3,200 over the past year, according to the BLS. Bishop writes the rural unemployment rate has dropped because the workforce has dropped by almost 230,000 people. The workforce in exurban and urban counties increased during that period.

Four of the 10 rural counties with the largest unemployment increases over the last year were Appalachian coal-producing counties in Kentucky, where coal companies have laid off miners due to power-plant competition from natural gas. West Virginia's Boone County had the greatest unemployment increase. The rest of the top counties with the largest unemployment increases come from Nebraska, Louisiana and Colorado. Almost half the 50 counties with the largest declines in unemployment rates were in Mississippi. (Read more)

Rural unemployment continues to rise slowly

Unemployment in rural areas continued to rise in July, reaching 8.4 percent in the 2,000-plus rural counties in the U.S., according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The rate has been rising since April, when it was 7.7 percent. A year ago it was 9.1 percent. Unemployment continues to be slightly higher in urban areas than in rural. In July, unemployment in urban areas was 8.7 percent. Suburbs were lower.

Click map for a larger version

Since last July, almost two out of three rural and exurban counties gained employment, Bill Bishop of the Daily Yonder and Roberto Gallardo of the Center for Rural Affairs report. They note "certain regional patterns:" Pacific coast states had a high number of rural counties that lost jobs since July 2011, the Great Plains had job losses, but not in the oil and gas drilling regions. Rural Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Georgia have gained large numbers of jobs. (Read more) (Yonder map)

Rural job-growth rate is half that of urban areas

Daily Yonder map; click on it for larger version

Jobs in rural counties grew only half as fast as in urban counties in the last year, Bill Bishop of the Daily Yonder found after analyzing figures compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They show that in the 12 months beginning in June 2011, the latest period for which county data is available, jobs in urban counties increased by 1.77 percent while those in rural counties rose only 0.86 percent. Exurban counties had 1.6 percent more jobs, the same as the national rate. (Exurban counties lie within standard metropolitan statistical areas, but have half their residents living in rural settings.)

In real numbers, that means that in rural counties, there are 194,000 more jobs this June than June a year ago. In exurban counties, there are 201,000 more jobs and in urban counties there are 1,874,000.

 Many counties lost jobs over the last year, Bishop notes. One-third of rural and exurban counties had fewer people working this June than last. The largest disparity between rural and urban employment in June 2012 was in South Carolina, where the unemployment rate in June was 8.9 percent in urban areas and 12.2 in rural counties. The rural unemployment rate was in double digits in eight other states: Arizona (11%); California (12.1); Georgia (11); Mississippi (10.9); North Carolina (11); Oregon (10); and Tennessee (10.4). (Read more)

Rural counties gained jobs overall last year, due in large measure to gas boom, but not all prospered

Rural America saw an overall gain in jobs over the last year, but those jobs were not distributed evenly across rural counties, according to a data analysis by the Daily Yonder. Last May, the rural unemployment rate was 8.7 percent, almost one percentage point higher than this May, but about one-third of the 2,036 rural counties across the country lost jobs during that time, Bill Bishop reports. (Yonder map)

Bishop writes the rates change significantly from county to county. North Dakota contains four counties that saw the largest gains in employment, mainly from oil and gas drilling, and also the county that saw the largest losses. The 10 states with that gained the most jobs in rural counties over the last year are North Dakota, Montana, Texas and Colorado. These gains are likely due to the natural gas boom in those states, which has exponentially increases employment. The 10 states with the biggest losses are North Dakota, Nebraska, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Minnesota and North Carolina, with the biggest percentage loss in North Dakota at 20.3 percent.

Small Illinois town feels betrayed by closure of prison, major employer in their underemployed town

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn

The people in the tiny rural town of Tamms, Ill., with 11 percent unemployment and its main source of jobs the state's maximum-security prison, just got word that the big-city governor they supported is mothballing the "supermax" facility. Jim Suhr of the Associated Press reports that the Southern Illinois town feels more than a bit betrayed by Gov. Pat Quinn's decision, made though lawmakers approved money to maintain the site, as well as a second facility in the north-central Illinois town of Dwight. Calling the closure “a profound and staggering loss,” the five-county Southern Five Regional Planning District and Development Commission forecast that eliminating the Tamms' prison’s 250 jobs ultimately would cost more than 200 more indirectly.

Quinn has offered to sell the 14-year-old facility to the federal government, but the pending closure has fostered ill will, "fanning the perception that Quinn and other Chicago powerbrokers don’t care much about folks outside the Windy City," writes Suhr. Illinois has been under pressure to close Tamms from activists who argue "its tough security measures are inhumane, and lawmakers have had to make a number of painful spending decisions given the state’s enormous budget crisis. Quinn aides say the Tamms prison is half-empty and three times as expensive to run as other facilities. Quinn signed the new state budget Saturday, saying he would use money from the shuttered prisons to restore funding to the Department of Children and Family Services, the agency in charge of maintaining child welfare in the state." In offering to see the prison to the federal government,  Quinn noted its isolated location and access to an interstate as selling points.

Midwest law schools counseling students to 'go rural' in search of jobs, where they're needed most

Kay Oskvig, second-year University of Iowa student in
 Garner, where she clerks. (WSJ photo by Jenn Ackerman)

In parts of the rural Midwest, small towns are itching for lawyers, writes Ashby Jones of The Wall Street Journal. "The job market is good for lawyers in the western and more rural parts of Nebraska, in towns like Ogallala and Scottsbluff," said Susan Poser, dean of the law school at the University of Nebraska. "We're trying to make students more aware of those opportunities," she said. Last year, the University of Nebraska's law school created a special program of study for its students focused on practicing solo or in small firms after they graduate. The University of Kansas law school a few months ago launched a "rural and solo practice program," which teaches students the basics of each.

The rural areas' biggest selling point is jobs. As of February, the employment rate for students who graduated in 2011 was about 86 percent, the lowest for a class since 1994, according to the National Association for Law Placement. In many ways these law schools are following the lead of the medical profession, reports Jones, which has long encouraged students to practice in rural settings with doctor shortages, and often subsidized them to do so: "The surfeit of lawyers in the rural Midwest largely boils down to demographics: Educated young people raised in the region are fleeing for the cultural and financial opportunities of larger cities, both in their own states and farther afield."

"Twenty years ago, Chadron had 10 lawyers; Alliance had a dozen," said Scottsbluff lawyer Howard Olsen, a former president of the Nebraska Bar Association. "Now, they each just have two or three." Olsen said that clients in rural Nebraska who used to find a lawyer across the street may now drive "50, 60, sometimes 100 miles" to find one. In small towns, lawyers' annual pay tends to start in the low-to-mid-five figures, but advantages can twinkle in the eye of the beholder. "The cost of living, the pace of living and the variety of practice, to name a few," said Marianne B. Culhane, dean of the law school at Creighton University in Omaha. "Plus, no long commutes." (Read more)

Arch Coal to lay off 650 Appalachian miners, mostly in E.Ky.; blame game begins

Blaming market conditions and regulatory obstacles, Arch Coal announced its intent to lay off about 650 miners -- 500 of those in Eastern Kentucky, 125 in West Virginia and 25 in Virgina. “You’ve got people that are going to lose their homes, lose their livelihood,” Perry County Judge-Executive Denny Ray Noble of Hazard, Ky., said of the decision, terming it "a disaster" for the region.

"Some Kentucky officials directly blamed the layoffs on recent actions by the Obama administration and the federal Environmental Protection Agency, which have taken a more aggressive stance in recent years to reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants and to crack down on water pollution from surface mining," Mike Wynn of The Courier-Journal reports. But Matt Wasson of the environmental group Appalachian Voices challenged those assertions, saying while Kentucky mining operations have laid off more than 900 workers in recent months, coal companies have attributed nearly all of those cuts to market conditions. “It’s really unfortunate that is how some of the local officials are going to play this,” he said. “That is all about politics. . . . The reality is that four years ago coal supplied half of our electricity. Today it supplies a third. That has enormous consequences."